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GLOBAL EXECUTIVE SURVEY
Impact of Pandemic & Economic Slowdown
Monitor Market Dynamics! Early March 2020, we reached out to senior enterprise executives who are driving strategy, business development, marketing, sales, product management, technology and operations at competitive firms worldwide. Our ongoing survey is focused on how this will this affect their business ecosystems. We invite you to participate in our survey and add to collective perspectives. Market movements are tracked for 2020, 2021 and broadly for the period of 2022 through 2025. Critical changes are monitored dynamically for the rest of this year. Updated analytics will reflect new and evolving market realities. Our first update scheduled for May 2020 and another in the Fall. Clients receive complimentary updates during 2020. If your company is a recent client for this project, we may have already reached out to your colleagues to participate in our program. If you're an active player in the space but hasn't yet subscribed to our project, we invite you to participate and share your perspectives. Please sign-up here.
Global iron core consumption is expected to slump by -4.7% in the year 2020 highlighting a 104 million tons erosion in consumption. Thereafter the market is expected to recover and reach 2.6 billion metric tons by the year 2027 trailing a post pandemic CAGR of 3.5% over the analysis period 2020 to 2027. Covid-19 has affected the working of many businesses around the globe, and iron ore mining too has its share of disruptions as the viral infection continues to spread. Production as well as consumption of Iron ore for the near future is expected to be impacted in the year 2020. Production of iron ore during the first half-year of 2020 has been hit in countries such as Canada, Peru, South Africa, Australia, Brazil and India due to shutdowns and seasonal changes in the weather. The demand for imported iron ore by China is declining due to insipid economic activity and bottlenecks in domestic logistics interfering with local supply. China has single handedly been the driver of the steel and iron ore markets for about two decades. The country is the largest consumer and importer of iron ore in the world. Due to the presence of low-grade iron ore reserves, China is primarily dependent on other countries to meet domestic demand. Despite holding large reserves, Chinese iron ores are considered low grade, containing about 30%-35% iron content. Countries such as India, South Africa, and Sweden, with superior quality iron ore, containing more than 60% iron content, enjoy competitive advantages over other nations. Most of the iron ore produced in the world is exported to China and China uses almost half of all copper the world produces. A high proportion of steel used by the world is from China, due to the increased refinery capacities installed. Copper and other metals too are produced by China in large quantities. While panic has led to the unloading of equity in USA and other countries, ceding markets to the bears, the prices of metals seem to be holding relatively steady.
The construction industry which accounts for 45.7% of world steel consumption is facing the brunt of labor migration, capital constraints and disruptions in construction material supply chain. Diversion of government funds from infrastructure development to pandemic firefighting has additionally impacted the construction industry, which is dependent to a large extent on infrastructure projects. In several countries, all non-essential construction projects have been put on hold with the exception of building emergency hospitals for COVID-19 care. Residential construction is taking a beating with millions of people worldwide pushed into unemployment as businesses either go bankrupt or layoff workforce to stay afloat. The long shadow of the coronavirus is thwarting home-buying plans of consumers. With countries seeing a second wave of infections, the Covid-19 resurgence is likely to undermine the much awaited chances of a V-shaped recovery. Challenges of maintaining social distancing at construction sites is resulting in difficulties in obtaining project clearances from regulatory authorities. Ensuring raw material availability still remains a challenge for most construction contractors. The machinery industry which is accounts for 18.1% share of global steel consumption is also feeling the weight of falling industrial output and a crumbling manufacturing sector. The worst affected industry in this pandemic driven crisis is manufacturing with its complex supply chains, labor intensive processes, and interdependencies. Division of labor, modular manufacturing strategies, outsourcing to reduce costs and increase the efficiency, consistency, and quality of each operations, have made the manufacturing sector most vulnerable amid the lockdown restrictions. An indication of the grim state of affairs is the fact that global manufacturing PMI is already declining and will fall to an estimated all-time low of 35.4 points in 2020 as compared to 53.8 in 2019. This indicates severe contraction of manufacturing activity including new orders, production, employment, supplier deliveries, inventories, customers` inventories, commodity prices, order backlog, new export orders, and imports. Global industrial output is plummeting sharply with the U.S posting steep declines of -16.5% & -15.2% in March & April 2020. The slumping demand for machine tools in response to these challenges is impacting steel demand and consumption.
Post COVID-19 growth will be supported by supported by the emergence of India, Turkey and other developing markets to counterbalance the slowdown in Chinese consumption. Processing of steel requires iron ore and coal to be heated in a blast furnace to produce molten iron or pig iron from which steel is produced. In the immediate future, the market will continue to face pricing volatility coupled with a growing price gap among different grades of iron ore. China will witness increased demand for higher grade iron ore with lesser impurities against the backdrop of stringent implementation of legislations to reduce emissions and boost production efficiencies. Driven by India, Asia-Pacific (excluding Japan and China) will remain a major market supported by continued industrialization and urbanization and increase in factory and housing build outs; policy led gains in infrastructure investments; recovery in employment rates and discretionary income and consumption of manufactured goods and finished steel products such as machinery, metal goods and automobiles. Other emerging markets, such as Turkey, Russia, and Latin American countries are also expected to drive consumption of iron ore in the coming years.
» Product Type (Fines, HBI/DRI, Pellets, Lumps)
» World » USA » Canada » Japan » China » Europe » France » Germany » Italy » UK » Spain » Russia » Turkey » Ukraine » Rest of Europe » Asia-Pacific » India » South Korea » Taiwan » Rest of Asia-Pacific » Latin America » Argentina » Brazil » Mexico » Rest of Latin America » Middle East » Africa
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