COVID-19 IMPACT SURVEY MAY 2020
After a temporary fall in sales in years 2020 and 2021, the global market for Elevators and Escalators is projected to reach US$80.1 billion by 2027. The pandemic triggered serious economic uncertainties will impact this market in the short term. Manufacturing PMI is falling below the 50 points indicating contraction; real gross domestic product (GDP) is plummeting in countries worldwide as lockdowns and quarantines take their toll on economic activity; employment rates have already fallen by 3. 8% pushing millions into unemployment; new orders for manufacturing firms are witnessing painful declines as procurement plans get postponed in response to growing fears of a recession; with consumer confidence hitting rock bottom amidst the crisis demand for consumer goods has and will continue to be impacted. The energy and transportation sectors are coming out as the biggest losers as a result of the decline in economic activity. The world is now preparing for the worst-ever recession. The construction industry is no exception. Investments on the building construction and infrastructure across industries including residential, commercial, industrial and institutional verticals are slowing down. Lockdowns and disruptions in labor supply are impacting construction projects with workers unable to get to work/project sites. Disruptions in delivery of key materials and equipment are halting activities on current project sites. Disruptions in economic and business activity are pushing the world into a recession, which threatens to virtually annihilate new orders for construction companies. As economies bleed from the pandemic, the financial collapse will impact businesses and investors across a wide range of sectors. The decline in public and private investments on new constructions will wield short-term pain for manufacturers of elevators and escalators.
The long-term outlook however remains more optimistic with the post COVID-19 period expected to bring all the market`s fundamental growth drivers into play. These include urbanization, demographic transformations, environmental protection and safety. The global population is estimated to grow to 8. 9 billion by 2050, representing an increase of 47% from the 6. 1 billion in 2000. Life expectancy will continuously rise worldwide. During the next few decades, the number of people aged 65 years and above is estimated to increase by nearly 33%, while increase in people in the age group of above 80 years will be two times the present number. As the average age of the population increases, accessibility becomes the key factor, necessitating all multi-floor buildings to be provided with vertical transportation systems such as escalators, elevators, stair lifts, and platform lifts. Advancements in technology will help manufacturers to offer sophisticated escalators and elevators with attractive features and improved designs. Elevators with music playback, LED displays, and elevators that provide users with bird`s eye-view of the entire city during transit will re-emerge to be in demand amonghigh-end corporate and commercial complexes and 5-star hotels. Strong focus will be shed on energy and the environment. Environmental Product Declarations and Life Cycle Assessments are already becoming mandatory for manufacturers. `Green` infrastructure statutory requirements and standards across the globe will spur demand for replacing traditional elevator systems in existing buildings.